Intelligence community officials on Tuesday detailed the ways foreign adversaries could seek to meddle in American democracy after the November general election, from stoking societal unrest to sowing doubt about integrity of the election.
The assessment, outlined in a National Intelligence Council memorandum released Tuesday, warns that China, Iran and Russia are likely to continue efforts to undercut U.S. democracy after the polls close.
Foreign countries might push to disrupt or delay time-sensitive processes and seek to meddle during various parts of the election process: the counting of votes, the state-level certification process and the time between Congress counting the electoral votes on Jan. 6, 2025, and the inauguration on Jan. 20.
“Foreign adversaries are likely to perceive varying opportunities to undermine each stage of the post-voting process,” the memorandum states. “This period also has a sequence of deadlines that, if missed, could disrupt the normal process and have cascading and varied effects on later stages of the process.”
Government officials have expressed confidence in the security of the vote-counting process, and the intelligence community says they have no information that foreign powers are aiming to compromise the election administration process.
But adversaries could spread disinformation when the results have yet to be finalized, the memorandum said.
Foreign actors could deface websites by posting fake results or use generative artificial intelligence to post fake election results or create a video to put out unofficial results, the memorandum said.
During the certification process, foreign adversaries could try to increase pressure on state or local officials not to certify the election results and “challenge states’ ability to meet the deadline for signing the Certificates of Ascertainment” in December, the memorandum said.
“Foreign-driven or -amplified violent protests, violence, or physical threats to election workers or state and local officials could challenge state and local officials’ ability to conduct elements of the certification and Electoral College process,” the document said.
Adding to the risk is the fact that some U.S. states require the certification of results, or the meeting of Electoral College electors, to be in-person without statutes that permit changes, the memorandum read.
Foreign powers could also be active after the election is certified on Jan. 6, 2025, as Russia was in the previous presidential election cycle, the document said. The day after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, a Russian official directed Russian media to use the violence “as an opportunity to disparage the United States,” and “Russian influence actors subsequently posted propaganda on multiple platforms.”
The memorandum, which is dated Oct. 8 but was released publicly with some redactions by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence Tuesday, states that Russia and Iran are “probably willing to at least consider” tactics that could contribute to violent protests.
An election security update posted Tuesday used stronger language and said the intelligence community is “increasingly confident” that Russian actors are thinking about influence efforts aimed at inciting violence.
Russia is seeking to boost former President Donald Trump’s candidacy while Iran prefers Vice President Kamala Harris, according to U.S. officials. China is aiming to disparage American democracy but is not seeking to influence the presidential election, officials have said.
The memorandum dovetails with a broader effort from U.S. government officials to provide more information to the public on how overseas powers are seeking to manipulate the hearts and minds of Americans during the election.
